Behind the Scenes: Match Prediction God Simulation

This page explains and demonstrates the advanced simulation engine that powers the match prediction system. The simulation models each team's match as a dynamic decision tree, where outcomes adapt to both team statistics and user-defined parameters.

How the Simulation Works

1. Team Profiles: Each team is modeled with statistical data (mean, standard deviation, consistency, climbing %, etc.) for each match phase.
2. Decision Trees: For every phase (Autonomous, Teleop, Endgame, Defense), the simulation uses a decision tree. Each node represents a possible action or outcome, with probabilities based on team stats and simulation inputs.
3. Dynamic Inputs: Simulation parameters (e.g., aggression, defense, random seed) can be adjusted. The decision tree adapts in real time, changing the simulation path and outcomes.
4. Adaptive Outcomes: Each simulation run is unique. The tree branches based on both historical data and random factors, reflecting real-world unpredictability.

Example Simulation Flow

import numpy as np
 
class TeamProfile:
    def __init__(self, auton_mean, teleop_mean, endgame_mean, defense_prob, climb_prob, stddevs):
        self.auton_mean = auton_mean
        self.teleop_mean = teleop_mean
        self.endgame_mean = endgame_mean
        self.defense_prob = defense_prob
        self.climb_prob = climb_prob
        self.stddevs = stddevs
 
def simulate_phase(mean, stddev):
    return np.random.normal(mean, stddev)
 
def simulate_decision(prob):
    return np.random.rand() < prob
 
def simulate_team(team: TeamProfile, params):
    # Autonomous
    auton_score = simulate_phase(team.auton_mean, team.stddevs['auton'])
    # Teleop
    teleop_score = simulate_phase(team.teleop_mean, team.stddevs['teleop'])
    # Endgame: decision tree
    if simulate_decision(team.climb_prob):
        endgame_score = 15  # Deep climb
    elif simulate_decision(team.climb_prob * 0.5):
        endgame_score = 10  # Shallow climb
    else:
        endgame_score = 5 if simulate_decision(0.3) else 0  # Park or nothing
    # Defense
    defense_score = 5 if simulate_decision(team.defense_prob) else 0
    # Total
    return auton_score + teleop_score + endgame_score + defense_score
 
def simulate_match(red_teams, blue_teams, params):
    red_score = sum(simulate_team(team, params) for team in red_teams)
    blue_score = sum(simulate_team(team, params) for team in blue_teams)
    return red_score, blue_score

Adaptive Decision Trees

• The simulation tree changes based on input parameters (e.g., toggling "aggressive defense" increases defense probability and may reduce scoring).
• Each run can be visualized or logged to show the decision path for every team.

Machine Learning Integration

• Simulation results are fed into an XGBoost model for win probability, using features like total phase scores and defense value.
• The model adapts as more data is collected, improving prediction accuracy.

Visualization

• Phase-by-phase breakdowns and decision paths can be visualized with stacked bar charts and color gradients, as described in the Match Prediction Mathematics document.

This simulation engine combines statistical rigor, adaptive decision trees, and machine learning to provide a realistic, flexible, and powerful match prediction system.